Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City (2024)

Truong, C., Malavasi, M., Li, H., Trück, S. (2024). Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w

Truong, Chi ; Malavasi, Matteo ; Li, Han et al. / Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways : a case study of New York City. In: Annals of Operations Research. 2024.

@article{f9d2b2f8a3e5436ba8163a8fc1b65314,

title = "Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City",

abstract = "Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach based on real options analysis and extreme value theory, which enables the selection of optimal adaptation pathways for a portfolio of climate adaptation projects. We model the severity of extreme sea level events using the block maxima approach from extreme value theory, and then develop a real options framework, factoring in climate change, sea level rise uncertainty, and the growth in asset exposure. We then apply the proposed framework to a real-world problem, considering sea level data as well as different adaptation investment options for New York City. Our research can assist governments and policy makers in taking informed decisions about optimal adaptation pathways and more specifically about reducing flood and storm surge risk in a dynamic settings.",

keywords = "Adaptation, Climate change, Flood risk, Real option analysis, Sea level rise",

author = "Chi Truong and Matteo Malavasi and Han Li and Stefan Tr{\"u}ck and Shevchenko, {Pavel V.}",

year = "2024",

month = may,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w",

language = "English",

journal = "Annals of Operations Research",

issn = "0254-5330",

publisher = "Springer, Springer Nature",

}

Truong, C, Malavasi, M, Li, H, Trück, S 2024, 'Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City', Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w

Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City. / Truong, Chi; Malavasi, Matteo; Li, Han et al.
In: Annals of Operations Research, 21.05.2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways

T2 - a case study of New York City

AU - Truong, Chi

AU - Malavasi, Matteo

AU - Li, Han

AU - Trück, Stefan

AU - Shevchenko, Pavel V.

PY - 2024/5/21

Y1 - 2024/5/21

N2 - Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach based on real options analysis and extreme value theory, which enables the selection of optimal adaptation pathways for a portfolio of climate adaptation projects. We model the severity of extreme sea level events using the block maxima approach from extreme value theory, and then develop a real options framework, factoring in climate change, sea level rise uncertainty, and the growth in asset exposure. We then apply the proposed framework to a real-world problem, considering sea level data as well as different adaptation investment options for New York City. Our research can assist governments and policy makers in taking informed decisions about optimal adaptation pathways and more specifically about reducing flood and storm surge risk in a dynamic settings.

AB - Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach based on real options analysis and extreme value theory, which enables the selection of optimal adaptation pathways for a portfolio of climate adaptation projects. We model the severity of extreme sea level events using the block maxima approach from extreme value theory, and then develop a real options framework, factoring in climate change, sea level rise uncertainty, and the growth in asset exposure. We then apply the proposed framework to a real-world problem, considering sea level data as well as different adaptation investment options for New York City. Our research can assist governments and policy makers in taking informed decisions about optimal adaptation pathways and more specifically about reducing flood and storm surge risk in a dynamic settings.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Climate change

KW - Flood risk

KW - Real option analysis

KW - Sea level rise

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85193734075&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w

DO - 10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85193734075

SN - 0254-5330

JO - Annals of Operations Research

JF - Annals of Operations Research

ER -

Truong C, Malavasi M, Li H, Trück S, Shevchenko PV. Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City. Annals of Operations Research. 2024 May 21. Epub 2024 May 21. doi: 10.1007/s10479-024-05886-w